1, a fair election and a peaceful transition of power.
2, Trump wins but the democrats refuse to relinquish power leading to a civil war.
3, the election appears rigged to favor democrats and this leads to civil war. (2 and 3 depends on a public willing to take that step.)
I don't think there is much of a chance of 1 happening, giving the democrats track record starting with Dailey of Chicago and ramping up with their activities over the last 8 years at least. Democrats have already instigated open insurrection in Portland, Seattle, and other cities. That leaves 2 and 3 and it's a tossup on each. As your article says, what the military does will be the deciding factor. If troops follow their Oath and higher command are smart the regular Army and Marines will it sit out and let the politicians fix the conflict. Guard probably will anyway, at least on a national scare. Their Oath is to their State mostly. Air Force, Space Force, and Navy really don't have much to bring. Army and Marines will be the players. I'd predict that, in the case of civil war, some units of battalion size will support one side and some the other, just as some states will. I am sure democrats are making plans (they did contact some division commanders after 2020 to try and counter-act an imagined refusal to step down by Trump) on both contingencies. I doubt Republicans have done any planning at all. And I'm positive there are plans sitting in vaults on what the military will do for the JCS to tap.
Alot depends on the intention of each party to sustain the Constitution as the Law of the Land and the integrity of the United States. If those 2 elements are ignored then there are several options open to the democrats, from using Antifa or Antifa-like irregulars to accepting military assistance from foreign powers, RU and PRC.
I think an armed citizenry is a big part of the equation. But how and what our various national guards and other military forces do is key in my opinion. And yes,. Let's hope it's all speculative.
In the end this may be decided by an armed citizenry hopefully this will remain an armchair discussion
There are 3 possible scenarios -
1, a fair election and a peaceful transition of power.
2, Trump wins but the democrats refuse to relinquish power leading to a civil war.
3, the election appears rigged to favor democrats and this leads to civil war. (2 and 3 depends on a public willing to take that step.)
I don't think there is much of a chance of 1 happening, giving the democrats track record starting with Dailey of Chicago and ramping up with their activities over the last 8 years at least. Democrats have already instigated open insurrection in Portland, Seattle, and other cities. That leaves 2 and 3 and it's a tossup on each. As your article says, what the military does will be the deciding factor. If troops follow their Oath and higher command are smart the regular Army and Marines will it sit out and let the politicians fix the conflict. Guard probably will anyway, at least on a national scare. Their Oath is to their State mostly. Air Force, Space Force, and Navy really don't have much to bring. Army and Marines will be the players. I'd predict that, in the case of civil war, some units of battalion size will support one side and some the other, just as some states will. I am sure democrats are making plans (they did contact some division commanders after 2020 to try and counter-act an imagined refusal to step down by Trump) on both contingencies. I doubt Republicans have done any planning at all. And I'm positive there are plans sitting in vaults on what the military will do for the JCS to tap.
Alot depends on the intention of each party to sustain the Constitution as the Law of the Land and the integrity of the United States. If those 2 elements are ignored then there are several options open to the democrats, from using Antifa or Antifa-like irregulars to accepting military assistance from foreign powers, RU and PRC.
Just my thoughts.
I think an armed citizenry is a big part of the equation. But how and what our various national guards and other military forces do is key in my opinion. And yes,. Let's hope it's all speculative.
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. Very insightful. I may quote you in future pieces. Stay engaged. More to come.