Which Side Might Spark Civil War?
The next installment of my CIVIL WAR CHRONICLES … my new series devoted to the potential for civil conflict in America, how it might come about, and how we can prevent it.
With some 20 days until the presidential election, as the candidates sprint to the finish these next few weeks, things aren’t getting better.
“The United States has an undercurrent of political violence, and periodically for different reasons it bubbles to the top and explodes into riots, insurrections, succession, assassinations and assassination attempts,” said Barbara Perry, a professor at the University of Virginia who directs the presidential oral-history program in the Washington Post.
“This year, she said, “I think this undercurrent has now become the current. Right now it’s at the surface, and it’s rushing along. We’re in a white-water rapids.”
And the heated rhetoric isn’t helping.
Most recently, MSNBC host Joe Scarborough claimed that former President Donald Trump and his family were preparing for civil war after the election. I discussed it on October 11:
Democrats Dangerously Claim Trump Preparing For Civil Conflict
Truth or dare? In the latest installment of American Civil War Chronicles 2.0, a well-known former Republican congressman-turned-Democrat TV pundit. is claiming that former President Donald Trump and his family are now “preparing for civil war” after the election.
Does this type of talk eventually turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy, or are Democrats gaslighting Republicans as they themselves prepare for yet another few years of subverting, undermining and sabotaging a lawfully elected Trump, under the guise of “resisting”?
As the New York Post recently reported: “MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough went on an epic rant Monday morning about the supposed threat of “civil war”; talking about the actual issues in this election, we guess, doesn’t help his ratings.”
“Or,” the outlet added, “maybe he thinks his team is losing on the merits.”
The Post continued:
Donald Trump and his family are “preparing for civil war,” Scarborough fumed, focusing on weekend speeches by the ex-prez and running-mate J.D. Vance — including one in which Trump had the nerve to note that his enemies have “slandered me, impeached me, indicted me, tried to throw me off the ballot. And who knows? Maybe even tried to kill me.”
The Daily Beast quoted Scarborough:
“The fact that JD Vance and Trump’s family would out and out say what they said takes the threat of violence… beyond where it was even leading up to January the sixth” in 2021, Scarborough said, referring to the Capitol riot. “This is an increasingly desperate person, an increasingly desperate family, who’s preparing for civil war. They just are. Talking about how they’re trying to kill him, Democrats are trying to kill him.”
Of course, all of Trump’s claims are true, but Democrats consider his [simply] noting these truths to be somehow preparing for civil conflict.
But the real question is: are we already at war? While the rhetoric is fanning the flames, there are major real issues deeply dividing us.
A brief published earlier in the year by the prestigious British think tank ‘Chatham House’ summarized these issues, noting that the US is now more divided along ideological and political lines than at any time since the 1850s.
Could the United States be headed for a national divorce?
While making its argument, it tries to connect current conservative red states to the old confederacy., and liberal blue states to the Union.
“There is a growing divide in US society and politics along old civil war battle lines – and the election could make things worse.”
And though I don’t fully buy the comparison, it does make a few good points.
After describing many of the social cultural and political differences dividing the two sides, such as abortion, LGBT issues, and foreign policy, the report cites the nation’s massive urban-rural divide.
It also notes the growing belief among some red states, such as Texas and even Florida, that the federal government has ‘broken its compact’ with the states on many critical issues, including transgenderism undermining women’s rights, and border security and illegal immigration flooding our states.
What if direct conflict erupts between Texas, Florida and some adjoining red states and the federal government under a Harris-Walz administration? Or if California decides to secede under a Trump return to office?
Last time Trump was in office, many Californians called for CALEXIT - or California Exit. Next time a few other states like Oregon, and Washington state, could join.
The reports concludes, and I wholeheartedly concur:
The outcome of the 2024 US election is unlikely to resolve these differences. In fact, it may deepen them, whoever becomes president. Just as southerners never fully accepted the outcome of the civil war, Trump supporters who believe the 2020 election was stolen are unlikely to gracefully accept a loss in 2024, presaging more resentment and possible renewed violence.
And if Trump wins, Biden supporters may attribute it to Republican election subversion, further alienating Democrats from their fellow Americans.
The reports adds that: “America’s friends and allies need to understand that the United States has become a Disunited States. There are effectively two Americas – and they are at war. They are fighting over social, political and constitutional issues, and over what role the US should play in the world. The 2024 US election is just another battle in this war.”
Stay tuned for the next installment of CIVIL WAR CHRONICLES.
Paul Crespo is the President of the Center for American Defense Studies, Managing Editor of American Liberty Defense News, and Managing Partner of SPECTRE Global Risk. As a Marine Corps officer, he led Marines, served aboard ships in the Pacific and jumped from helicopters and airplanes.
He was also a military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies worldwide.
He later ran for congress, taught political science, wrote for a major newspaper and co-hosted his own radio show. A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten our American liberty – at home and abroad.