Putin's Nukes - My Top Stories for the Week
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Putin's Nukes - My Top Stories for the Week
Russian Nuclear Threats and Risk of Armageddon
Why Russia’s ‘Micro-Nuclear’ Weapons Are a Big Threat
ANALYSIS – As I wrote earlier, Russian Leader Vladimir Putin has painted himself into a corner in Ukraine, and the chances of his using nuclear weapons to seize victory from the jaws of defeat are growing daily.
Putin’s threats grew louder last week when he said he was prepared to “use all the means available to us,” including “various weapons of destruction.”
“I’m not bluffing,” he added.
While some believe Putin IS bluffing, despite his protestations to the contrary, one particular Russian capability should concern us all.
That is Russia’s possession of large numbers of tactical, low-yield and micro-nuclear weapons. This is an area where Russia totally outclasses the United States and NATO forces.
As I wrote about in March:
…THESE SHOULD BE FAR MORE CONCERNING THAN THE STRATEGIC NUKES IN THIS UKRAINE WAR SCENARIO. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE U.S. AND NATO DON’T REALLY HAVE MANY TACTICAL NUKES LEFT IN THEIR ARSENAL.
THE RUSSIAN TACTICAL NUCLEAR ASSETS INCLUDE AIR AND SEA LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILES, SURFACE TO AIR MISSILES, MEDIUM RANGE, ROAD MOBILE, SURFACE-TO SURFACE BALLISTIC MISSILES, AND AIR LAUNCHED HYPERSONIC LAND ATTACK WEAPONS.
And Politico reports:
TOP INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN STEPPING UP THEIR WARNINGS IN RECENT MONTHS ABOUT RUSSIA’S GROWING RELIANCE ON TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN ITS MILITARY STRATEGY.
AVRIL HAINES, THE DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE TOLD CONGRESS IN FEBRUARY THAT RUSSIA “IS EXPANDING AND MODERNIZING ITS LARGE, DIVERSE, AND MODERN SET OF NONSTRATEGIC SYSTEMS, WHICH ARE CAPABLE OF DELIVERING NUCLEAR OR CONVENTIONAL WARHEADS.”
Politico added that due to Russia’s employment of numerous dual-use conventional and nuclear delivery systems (roughly two dozen Russian weapon systems can deliver both conventional explosives and low-yield nuclear warheads), “gaining advanced knowledge of any looming Russian attack would by definition be a hard task.”
Politico reported: “If the Russians have it in their arsenal as a conventional weapon, you can be pretty safe in assuming it has a nuclear warhead that goes with it,” one advisor to the U.S. Strategic Command said.
“Almost every single weapon the Russians have is nuclear-capable. If it’s an artillery system, if it’s an air-defense system, if it’s a torpedo, if it’s a cruise missile, it could have a nuclear weapon with it.”
And these systems can often launch micro-nukes.
These are much smaller nuclear warheads with tens to hundreds of tons of explosive yield, versus thousands.
This makes them far more ‘usable’ to Russian commanders.
In contrast, the nuclear bombs the United States dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end WWII were between 15 to 20 kilotons or 15,000 to 20,000 tons.
The advisor quoted by Politico, who was also a former senior official with the National Security Council (NSC) noted: “That’s still a big bomb,” referring to micro-nukes, but stressed that “you can focus on really small tactical targets. … You don’t have lots of radiation.”
The fear is these low-yield and micro-nuclear weapons could be launched by dual-use systems with little or no notice.
Our intelligence services would need to focus on small tactical anomalies and subtle indications that the nuclear option has been put in motion.
This could mean particular units with the means of delivering a small nuclear device behaving out of the ordinary, like pulling back some forces or equipment but not others.
Still, the warning could be extremely limited.
However, others believe (including myself) that Putin may want to signal his intentions for diplomatic leverage.
As Politico reports, Franklin Miller, a former veteran Pentagon official and National Security Council nuclear policy official in the George W. Bush administration argues:
I THINK THAT THE RUSSIANS, IF THEY ARE GETTING READY TO DO THAT, WOULD BE TRYING TO SIGNAL THAT… THEY WOULD, IN AN OSTENTATIOUS MANNER, ARRANGE FOR THE NUCLEAR ROUNDS TO COME OUT OF THE SPECIAL STORAGE SITES. THEY’D GIVE US A HINT THAT THEY’RE MOVING MUNITIONS FROM CENTRAL STORAGE SITES TO FIRING UNITS. AND THEN GIVE US MORE TIME TO THINK ABOUT IT AND WORRY.
This could be what’s behind Russia’s current movement of the massive Russian nuclear submarine Belgorod, which I just wrote about.
Quietly moving this sub, armed with a new nuclear torpedo designed to flatten coastal cities, out of its Arctic base is one way to begin signaling intent.
Or at least make the U.S. and NATO worry a lot more. ALD
Putin’s Nuclear Threats Grow – Russian ‘Doomsday’ Nuke Sub Goes Missing
SPECIAL REPORT – Since the start of Russia’s unprovoked war of conquest against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has been making veiled and not-so-veiled threats of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine and against NATO.
While mostly seen as a coercive bluff, those threats have grown increasingly worrisome as Ukraine hammers Russian forces into retreat in the south and east. Putin’s botched ‘partial mobilization and the domestic turmoil it has provoked are adding to the pressure for drastic measures.
While his conventional forces have proven fairly inept and riddled with issues, his nuclear forces’ capabilities are far more straightforward.
So, what are Putin’s likely nuclear options?
As 1945.com reports:
ACCURATE, SUPER-LOW YIELD NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AS WELL AS CONVENTIONAL ONES…” THE RUSSIANS CALL THIS “ESCALATE TO DE-ESCALATION” A CONFLICT. A MORE ACCURATE DESCRIPTION OF IT IS “ESCALATE TO WIN.” THE RUSSIAN ASSUMPTION IS THAT THE WEST WILL NOT RESPOND TO THE LIMITED NUCLEAR ATTACK AND GIVE RUSSIA WHAT IT WANTS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PUTIN’S EXPECTATION THAT UKRAINE WOULD NOT FIGHT AND MEEKLY SURRENDER.
Despite the Russian doctrine’s focus on full-scale nuclear war with strategic weapons against NATO cities and major military targets, these surgical low-yield nuclear strikes are far more likely the first employment option in Ukraine.
Current best estimates show Russia likely has between two to four times as many active nuclear warheads as the U.S., most of them currently non-strategic (i.e., tactical, or low-yield nukes).
But Russia also has a significant stockpile of nuclear warheads in reserve.
CERTAINLY BE AGAINST TARGETS SELECTED TO HAVE MAXIMUM MILITARY EFFECT AND LOW-COLLATERAL DAMAGE WITH VERY LOW-YIELD NUCLEAR WEAPONS. IF THE WAR WERE AGAINST NATO, THE APPROACH WOULD BE THE SAME BUT THE NUCLEAR STRIKES COULD BE AGAINST NATO EUROPE OR THE U.S. OR EVEN POSSIBLY BOTH.
He adds:
RUSSIAN FORCES CONTAIN BATTLEFIELD NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AIR AND MISSILE DEFENSE NUCLEAR WEAPONS, ANTI-SHIP AND ANTI-SUBMARINE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND SHORT-, MEDIUM- AND LONG-RANGE CRUISE, BALLISTIC AND HYPERSONIC MISSILES. THE VERY EXISTENCE OF THESE FORCES IS CLEAR EVIDENCE THEY PLAN ON USING THEM IN THEATER WAR. THESE DUAL CAPABLE SYSTEMS ARE ROUTINELY USED IN RUSSIAN EXERCISES AND IN THE WAR IN UKRAINE.
And then there are the Russian superweapons which pose unique threats. They also have a major psychological and deterrence effect.
One of the most fearsome is the Poseidon nuclear torpedo or sea drone carried by the massive Belgorod nuclear missile submarine, the world’s largest sub.
The nuke torpedo is reportedly the size of a school bus.
The sub and its nuclear torpedo have been called a doomsday weapon. The 600-ft. submarine was delivered to the Russian Navy in July.
Schneider notes that the Poseidon is “reported to have a 100 megaton warhead which would kill millions by blast and fallout. I believe its role is to deter a response to Russian first use of low-yield nuclear weapons.”
Two days ago, reports said that the massive nuclear-powered submarine had gone missing from its harbor in the Arctic along with its rumored “doomsday weapon.”
Fox News reported:
NATO HAS REPORTEDLY WARNED MEMBERS THAT RUSSIA’S BELGOROD SUBMARINE NO LONGER APPEARED TO BE OPERATING OUT OF ITS WHITE SEA BASE, WHERE IT HAS BEEN ACTIVE SINCE JULY. OFFICIALS WARNED THAT RUSSIA MAY PLAN TO TEST BELGOROD’S “POSEIDON” WEAPONS SYSTEM, A DRONE EQUIPPED WITH A NUCLEAR BOMB THAT RUSSIA HAS CLAIMED IS CAPABLE OF CREATING A “RADIOACTIVE TSUNAMI,” ACCORDING TO ITALIAN MEDIA.
THE DRONE CAN BE DEPLOYED FROM THE SUBMARINE AT ANY TIME AND DETONATED AT A DEPTH OF 1 KILOMETER NEAR A COASTAL CITY. RUSSIAN STATE MEDIA HAS CLAIMED THE DEVICE CAN CREATE A 1,600-FT. WAVE THAT SMASHES INTO THE COAST AND IRRADIATES IT.
However, Naval News reported today that new images show the submarine operating in the Barents Sea, north of Russia’s Kola Peninsula.
But most significantly, Naval News seems to confirm Schneider’s assessment:
…A TEST LAUNCH OF POSEIDON [IS SEEN] AS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS COULD BE ROUTINE, TO TEST A NEW WEAPON SYSTEM. OR IT COULD PRINCIPALLY BE POLITICAL, AS A DEMONSTRATION. TESTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS, EVEN WITHOUT WARHEADS, MAY BE PART OF RUSSIA’S CHOSEN NUCLEAR ESCALATION LADDER.
ALD
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