Day 30 of Putin War - Russia Shifts Objectives?

'Plan B' appears to focus on solidifying control of Donbas eastern breakaway regions

March 24, 2022 - A month into their assault, Russian troops have failed to capture a major Ukrainian city. A massive combined arms miltary offensive that NATO believed was designed to swiftly topple President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's government has been halted at the gates of Kyiv.

Ukrainian countrrattacks are succeeding with Ukrainian troops recapturing towns east of the capital Kyiv and Russian forces who had been trying to sieze the city falling back on their overextended supply lines, the UK Ministry of Defence said.

Russian forces have lost full control of Kherson, the first city to fall to Russia earlier this month, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Friday.

This deteriorating stalemate, with growing Russian fuel, supply and morale problems, and more military supplies and aid from US and NATO, appears to have pushed Putin to re-evaluate his options.

Putting a positive face on it all, the deputy chief of the Russian general staff said his forces had largely achieved the “main objectives” of the first phase of what Moscow calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine. Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi said Russian forces had “considerably reduced” the combat power of the Ukrainian military, and as a result Russian troops could “focus on the main efforts to achieve the main goal, liberation of Donbas.”

According to a Russian official this includes ‘liberating’ the brutally contested southeastern seaport of Mariupol, where Russian troops have finally reached the city center.

"The liberation of Mariupol continues," the official said, referring to one key city in Donbas where Russian strikes have destroyed 80% of all housing and killed hundreds of civilians, while leaving the others without heating, running water or sufficient food.

However, Loren Thompson, a defense analyst at the Lexington Institute, a Washington think tank, said Putin might be recalibrating.

“Moscow may be looking for a way out of its Ukraine quagmire,” he said in an email. “Focusing its military goals on control of the Donbas could be a way of scaling back without admitting defeat.”

On the other hand, Russian forces might be aiming to continue the war with a narrower focus, not necessarily as an endgame but as a way of regrouping from early failures and using the Donbas as a new starting point, one U.S. analyst said.

As AP notes, Putin is now facing tough choices — how and where to replenish his depleted and mauled ground forces and whether to attack the supply lines of Western arms to Ukraine.

A big question concerning his second choice: at what cost could or should he escalate or widen the war?